European Outlook: The Beacon of Democracy Dims

By Mila Fisher

With the powerful right-turn in European politics, the outlook for Europe’s foreign policy and involvement in Ukraine has taken a drastic turn as well.

It is not very often Americans see any news regarding Europe anymore since November, yet it’s crucial to analyze as a window into what a global right-wing world could look like. Until recently, global powers believed Europe was immune to the nationalist virus surging the continent. However, this shift should not have been a surprise to the longstanding central-leftist and central-right parties who lead the EU. Beginning with Euroskeptics, such as Hungary’s Fidesz and Poland’s Law and Justice (PiS), earning influence at both the national and EU level, foundations of left-centered EU policies grew shaky. 

Contrary to the 2024 elections, Euroscepticism dominated far-right agendas during parliamentary and national-level elections in 2019, and with Brexit prevalent, many right wing candidates advocated for national prioritization or even the creation of a Federal Europe. This year, however, agenda’s were still favoring prioritization of a nation, but expressed this through the concept of a ‘Europe of Nations’. As research done by Carnegie Europe found, “radical-right parties have mostly abandoned demands for leaving the EU”. The majority of them favor a "Europe of nations" organized strictly along intergovernmental lines, allowing maximum freedom to member states. They demand the return of some powers to the national level and oppose any efforts to strengthen the union's probability of returning to a global powerhouse of democracy. Furthermore, they see EU foreign policy as merely a guideline to the extent governments can promote their own national interests.

In fact, most parties, like Germany’s growing AfD (Alternative für Deutschland), focus on anti-immigration sentiments. Stigmas such as immigrants increase crime in relatively peaceful cities, or that immigrants refuse to integrate with their new society, instead, emphasize their own cultures to ‘overtake’ the existing values, have been pushed–we see these same stigmas argued in our own politics–and have gained concerning support nationwide in Germany. Right-wing impacts upon the aspects of migration policy have even driven mainstream parties to move toward increasingly restrictive policies in efforts to retain voters. 

We see similar efforts towards the EU’s climate policies, which the right denounces as an authoritarian elite project that ignores the social and economic costs to citizens. Italy’s Giorgia Meloni, whose Brothers of Italy party has its roots in a 20th-century fascist movement, particularly pushes to be an ‘exaggerated issue’ that no one can stop, and devalues its severity despite her constituents feeling the impacts of it just last May after seeing floods that costed €8.8 billion and fifteen lives.

Outside of the vast continent-wide and national influence, the intensifying radical approach to foreign policy seems to fundamentally threaten one major international issue: The war in Ukraine. A common trend amongst right-wing parties is pro-Russian agendas, or less focus on support for Ukraine. As Hungary’s record over recent months shows, pro-Russian sympathies present a particular challenge to maintaining the EU’s support for Ukraine. December polling by YouGov in France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Sweden, Denmark and the UK found public desire to stand by Ukraine until victory had dropped in all seven countries. The rise of pro-Russian rhetoric and ideas to cut Ukraine aid in order to prioritize the nation could severely set back Ukraine in their already struggling conditions, and as Russia leads its most progressive offensive since 2022, the outlook for Ukrainian victory is slimming.

With Belgian’s extreme nationalist, Vlaams Belang, taking a landslide victory in June, Austria's Freedom Party–founded by former Nazis–claiming to ‘open a new era’ with their wins, and France’s Marine Le Pen considered to have excellent chances to win the presidential election in 2027, the outlook for EU policy dims from being a beacon of democracy, to a tide of restriction and nationalism. 

So, how should Europe avoid the rise of nationalist powers?

First and foremost, as the left attempts to mimic right-wing positions to retain voters, migration policies will grow restrictive. Refugees from Ukraine, Russia, and the Middle East will find difficulty reaching asylum status in an overcomplicated, biased system pushed by the right-wing and supported by the left. Family reunification efforts may deteriorate, or turn towards using a lengthy approval process. All outcomes, regardless of what steps the right takes, will effectively limit how many refugees are welcomed into their country, and impact across-the-board EU policies.

Next, the EU, as a democratic organization, has no power without its core values: all liberal. According to research, the decline of democracy within the EU is strongly related to unity in foreign policy. Many fundamental stakeholders are currently plagued with a lack of unity and a rise of diverse parties who are bound to dispute consensus, and all serve to distract from the purpose of the EU; Unity. The fragmentation in the political landscape of France and Germany is the most worrisome of all. Multiple elections, failures to maintain coalitions, drops in economic output, all serve to damage the effectiveness of governance and guidance from the two. Thus, nations and factions committed to democratic values need to intensify cooperation so they can isolate the most extreme nationalist agendas and therefore maintain consensus in foreign policy.

Thirdly, as the EU market is exhausted by too many economic disruptions, such as the gaps COVID-19 left behind, diverging domestic investments, the value of the Euro falling, and disturbed trade from the Ukraine-Russo war, the lack of economic cooperation will only serve to weaken the organization further. Nations must reinforce that European market strength can only be achieved through active investment into the organization’s common goals. Only when united can the EU stay afloat.

As long as unity lacks in European discourse and focus remains on domestic squabble, Europe will never resurface as a global leader able to compete with the influence Russia and the United States hold. The true issues of Europe are rebuilding faith in collective European action and countering forces who allow for defeatism in their parties. Only when such unanimity is restored will we see Europe’s beacon light again.